Comments based on information available as of 8:45am CT on 1/9/2026 Growth: Ending With a Thud The nonfarm payroll number was less than thrilling. A gain of 50,000 is better than a loss, but we do know that these numbers will likely be revised lower. In 2024, payrolls...
Comments based on information available as of 7:30am CT on 1/2/2026 The Year of the “Iron Jaw” A boxer with a glass jaw is easily stunned and knocked down. This year, markets showed an iron jaw: plenty of punches landed, but nothing knocked them out. Despite...
Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 12/26/2025 Growth: From Good to Great? Third-quarter real GDP grew at a strong 4.3% annualized pace, driven primarily by consumer spending—not data center build-outs or other trends dominating headlines this...
Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 12/19/2025 Growth: Labor’s Lump of Coal The November unemployment rate crept up to 4.6%. That’s still a gift compared to historical averages, but it has been moving in the wrong direction since March 2022 when...
Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 12/12/2025 Growth: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow The labor market has been going through a rough patch, but it’s not likely the start of something darker. Business capital spending is likely set to pick up,...
Comments based on information available as of 5:45am CT on 12/05/2025 Growth: Icy Conditions Black Friday sales surprised to the upside, but private-sector payrolls shrank in November. ISM manufacturing weakened, even as services held up better than expected. With the...
